南极长城站冬季冷空气活动分析及预报  

ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THE COLD AIR ACTIVITIES IN WINTER AT GREAT WALL STATION,ANTARCTICA

作　　者：杨清华[1] 尹涛[1] 张林[1] 许淙[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《极地研究》2008年第1期72-78,共7页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家海洋局青年海洋科学基金项目(2008219);中国极地战略研究基金项目(20070227);国家海洋环境预报中心自主科研课题(2007)资助

摘　　要：本文利用2002—2006年长城站的常规气象观测资料及澳大利亚气象局发布的南太平洋表面天气图,分析研究了该地区的冷空气活动特征。统计发现长城站冬季冷空气活动具有频数多、降温快、风力强、影响时间短等特点;分析认为气旋是诱使长城站冷空气爆发的关键因子;冷空气的路径主要有东路和西路两种,其中东路最为常见,它伴随有E-SE大风,主要天气形势是"南高北低",平均影响时间2d左右;西路伴随有W-SW大风,主要天气形势是"西低",其影响时间较短,常常仅有1d左右。最后给出了该地区冬季冷空气过程的预报思路。The characteristics of the cold air activities in winter at Great Wall Station are discussed based on the surface meteorological data from 2002 to 2006 and the surface synoptic charts issued by the Australia Meteorology Bureau. It is found that the cold air activities here have high frequencies, rapid temperature decreasing, strong winds, short duration and some other features. The cyclone is believed to be the key factor inducing the cold air activities. There are two kinds of cold air paths, one is from the east, and the other is from the west. The cold air from the east is more frequent, and its main synoptic situation is ‘High in the south, low in the north＇. It occurs with E-SE gale and two days＇ duration. The cold air from the west is less frequent, and its main synoptic situation is ‘Low in the west＇. It occurs with W-SW gale and one day＇s duration. Finally, the primary and brief way to forecast the cold air activities is given.

关 键 词：冷空气 气旋 预报 南极 长城站 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]