基于灰色拓扑的年径流序列预测研究  

Annual Runoff Forecasting Based on Gray Topology

作　　者：赵雪花[1] 黄强[2] 吴建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024 [2]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《水文》2008年第2期10-12,共3页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：山西省青年科技研究基金项目(2007021025);山西省自然科学基金项目(2006011059)

摘　　要：考虑到径流资料变化幅值较大,又不具有明显的周期性,为建立能客观反映径流变化这种复杂波形的模型,本文引进灰色拓扑预测方法,对黄河上游兰州站年径流进行了长期预测,预测结果精度较高,满足规范要求,此结论为黄河上游水资源的优化配置提供了科学依据。Runoff data usually change in a large range without obvious periodicity. In order to objectively display this complex wave shape of runoff change, this paper introduced gray topology forecasting method. Long-term forecasting of annual runoff was made with this method for Lanzhou Station in the upstream of the Yellow River. The results show that the forecasting precision is higher and meets standard. The conclusion provides scientific base for water resources planning and scientific management in the upstream of the Yellow River.

关 键 词：年径流 灰色拓扑预测 黄河上游 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]