安徽省可持续性发展现状及趋势分析  

Sustainability Status and its Trendency in Anhui Province

作　　者：何祥亮[1] 周晓铁[2] 孙世群[1] 陈伟兰[3] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]安徽省环境科学研究院,安徽合肥230061 [3]浙江大学环境与资源学院,浙江杭州310028

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2008年第9期3910-3911,3913,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：应用Wackernagel等提出的生态足迹分析法对安徽省近年来生态足迹和生态承载力进行计算,以此对安徽省可持续性发展现状进行度量,并利用灰色模型对安徽省人均生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测,试图对安徽省人均足迹将来一段时间内的占有情况进行分析。分析表明,2005年安徽省人均生态赤字已达1.289 5 hm2,若按现在的发展态势,安徽省生态赤字将持续增大,如不改变现状,安徽省可持续发展将面临更严峻挑战。With the ecological footprint method advanced by Wackemagel et al, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Anhui Province in recent years was studied. To measure the sustainable development of Anhui Province＇ s current status, the gray model was used to predict per capita＇ s e- cological footprint and ecological capacity of Anhui Province. The results showed that by 2005, the per capita ecological deficit had already reached 1.289 5 hm^2 and according to the current development trend, Anhui Province＇s ecological deficit would continue to increase, if change the status quo was not changed Anhui＇s sustainable development would face more severe challenges.

关 键 词：可持续发展 生态足迹分析法 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]