基于未确知数的湖库水环境容量定量研究  

Calculation of water environmental capacity in lake and reservoir based on unascertained number theory

作　　者：李如忠[1] 洪天求[1] 熊鸿斌[1] 钱家忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水动力学研究与进展（A辑）》2008年第2期166-174,共9页Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics

基　　金：安徽省"十一五"科技攻关计划重点项目(07010302165);安徽省自然科学基金项目(050450303)

摘　　要：同其它环境系统一样,湖泊水库也是一个具有未确知性的复杂系统。基于这一特征,本文将未确知数理论引入湖库水环境容量计算。在将湖库水环境系统参数,如水深、污染物浓度、污染物降解系数以及水体容积等定义为未确知参数的基础上,建立了湖库水环境容量计算未确知模型。根据该模型,不仅可以得到湖库纳污能力的各种可能区间值,也可以得到各区间值对应的可信度水平(或频率),弥补了传统确定性模型和随机模型的不足。作为案例,将上述未确知模型用于浅水湖泊水环境容量计算,取得较好效果,证明了模型的科学性和合理性。Like other environmental systems, lake and reservoir are also complicated systems with uncertainty According to this characteristic, unascertained number theory was applied for the simulation and calculation of water environmental capacity （WEC） in＇lake and reservoir. By defining the parameters of water environmental system such as water depth, pollutant concentration, pollutant purification coefficient, and water volume etc as unascertained parameters, a novel model with unascertained parameters was established for WEC in this paper. From such unascertained model, not only possible interval values of WEC but also their corresponding faith degrees （or frequencies） can be obtained simultaneously. On the whole, the unascertained model supplies a gap for deterministic and stochastic approaches. As a case, the unascertained model established above was applied to the calculation of WEC in a shallow lake. Study result shows the developed unascertained model efficient and reliable both in theory and in practice.

关 键 词：未确知性 未确知数 可信度 水环境容量 湖泊和水库 

分 类 号：TV131[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]