用ECMWF数值预报产品预报台风路径  

Application of EC MWF products to typhoon track forecasting

作　　者：陈玉石[1] 韩桂荣[2] 焦圣明[1] 王清楼[2] 袁成松[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210008 [2]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》2008年第2期205-211,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40475017,40665001)

摘　　要：为提高台风预报效果，并使其客观定量，本文运用ECMWF数值预报（0h（实况场）～168h）产品，以涡度中心为基础，在气旋性涡旋的格区中，找准恰当的“扭角”，用计算机图上作业程序确定台风位置，平均误差84km，表明本方案有其优越之处。在预报过程中，对涡度中心的阈值和搜寻半径系数的选定，结合实际计算后的距离误差和可预报率作了些讨论。逐年运用效果统计表明，本文提出的方案有着良好的应用前景。The ECMWF model products were used to improve typhoon track forecasting in this paper. The real position was found by computer based on vortex grids at first. Then the future position was determined after selected vortex center threshold and searching radius coefficient. In the mean time forecasting position error and forecasting ability have been discussed. Results indicated that the scheme in this paper has good application value.

关 键 词：台风 路径 客观 预报 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]