武汉市机动车保有量及相关因素对空气质量的影响  

The Effects of the Vehicle's Population and the Related Factors on Atmospheric Quality in Wuhan

作　　者：贺琴[1] 许芬[2] 樊莉蕊[1] 刘艾平[1] 李万仓[1] 曹玉广[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院流行病与卫生统计系,湖北武汉430030 [2]武汉市环境保护局环境科学研究所,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2008年第2期152-155,共4页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]研究武汉市机动车保有量及相关因素的变化情况,探索该市空气污染状况、变化趋势及影响空气质量的重要因素。[方法]收集武汉市1986～1995年间空气质量监测及城市建设方面的资料,利用简单相关、主成分回归、灰色关联分析进行统计处理。[结果]武汉市1986～1995年空气中主要的污染物为总悬浮颗粒物(TSP),浓度范围在0.211～0.356mg/m^3,超标率为40%。二氧化硫(SO_2)和氮氧化物(NO_x)均未超标,符合国家空气质量二级标准。NO_x浓度呈现上升趋势。主成分回归分析结果显示机动车保有量对NO_x的浓度影响最大。灰色关联分析显示机动车保有量与TSP、SO_2、NO_x浓度的灰色关联度系数分别为:0.6237、0.6235、0.7224,关联度排序为:NO_x>TSP>SO_2。[结论]城市NO_x浓度呈现上升趋势,机动车保有量增长是主要影响因素之一。尾气污染成为城市亟待解决的重大环境问题。[ Objective ] To investigate the variation of vehicle＇ s population and related factors in Wuhan between 1986 and 1995, to study the contemporaneous situation and the development trends of air pollution, and to explore leading influential factors of air quality and evidence for the control of air pollution. [ Methods ] The data of air pollution in Wuhan city between 1986 and 1995 and the data related to the urban construction were collected, such as the population, public traffic, urban gas, city virescence and gardening etc. Simple Correlation and Principal Component Analysis were used to select variables, and Grey Relational Analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the vehicle＇ s population and air pollutants. [ Results ] Total Suspensions Particle （ TSP ）was the leading pollutant, its concentration varies from 0.211 mg/m^3 to 0.356 mg/m^3, and there were 4years between 1986 and 1995 in which the concentration of TSP exceeded the national criterion. Both sulfur dioxide （ SO2 ） and oxides of nitrogen（ NOx ）were in accord with the national criteria. There was an ascending tendency in the concentration of NOx. Principal component regression analysis suggested that vehicle＇ s population was one of the main factors that contributed to the concentration of NOx. The degree of Grey Incidence （ DGI ）between the vehicle＇ s population and the concentration of air pollutants were accounted respectively. The maximum values of DGI was 0.722 4, that was the DGI between the vehicle＇ s population and NOx. The minimum value was 0.6235, that was between the vehicle＇ s population and SO2. In TSP, the value is 0.6237. [ Conclusion ] The ascending tendency of the concentration of NOx was partly attributed to the vehicle＇ s population. The automobile pxhaust pollution has become an important and urgent environmental problem.

关 键 词：机动车保有量 空气质量 主成分回归分析 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]