城市燃气管网的定量风险分析模型研究  

Research of Quantitative Risk Analysis Model for Urban Gas Pipeline Network

作　　者：高俊波[1] 郭越[1] 王晓峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学信息工程学院,上海200135

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2008年第2期280-286,共7页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：上海市重点学科建设项目资助(110602);上海市教委科研项目资助(06FZ006)

摘　　要：针对城市燃气管网的特点,本文对肯特分析法进行了改进,修正了肯特分析法影响因素的确定方法和影响权重的分配方法,然后利用改进后的肯特评分法对引起管网失效的各类因素进行分析;在此基础上,针对引起管网失效的部分因素具有不确定性,不能量化和模型化的不足,本文利用模糊综合评判法对其进行分析量化,建立了城市燃气管网的风险定量分析模型,为城市燃气管网的风险管理奠定了一定的基础.According to the characters of gas fuel pipeline network in urban, the determination method of the influential factors and the assignment method of weight of influence in Kent analysis method were all modified. In the modified Kent analysis method, those factors which caused pipeline failure were discussed. Besides, some factors of the gas-fuel pipelines have the disadvantage of uncertainty and could not be quantified and modelized. So, Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to quantitative analysis and then the quantitative risk analysis model for urban gas pipeline network is developed. It may be useful for risk management and pipeline planning.

关 键 词：燃气管线 肯特分析法 风险 模糊综合评判法 定量分析模型 

分 类 号：TU996[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]