无定河流域土地利用状况的预测  

Prediction of Land Use in Wuding River Basin

作　　者：李晶[1] 谢平[1] 陈广才[1] 黄德治[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2008年第2期15-19,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579052)

摘　　要：在无定河流域现有的1990、1995和2000年3期土地利用状况数据基础上进行一阶马尔科夫链模型插值，得到1990-2000年共11期土地利用状况资料。通过一阶马尔科夫链优化模型和灰色理论GM（1，1）模型对未来土地利用状况进行预测分析。结果表明：两种方法率定期数据和实测数据相对误差均在10％以内，结果可靠，方法合理；两种模型预测结果都与无定河流域实际趋势一致，效果良好，都可作为无定河流域未来土地利用状况预测的结果。Based on the existing land use data in 1990, 1995 and 2000 of Wuding River Basin, total data of the 11 yearly land use information during 1990 and 2000 were interpolated with the First-order Markov-chain Model. Then the Optimized First-order Markov-chain Model and the Gray Model（1, 1） were used to predict respectively the future land use. The results show that all of the relative errors between simulated data and measured data during 1990 and 2000 are less than 10%, the results are reliable and the methods are reasonable. The future data predicted by both methods are in accordance with the consistent trends of the Wuding River Basin, the effect is good. The results predicted by both these methods can be used as the land use on the Wuding River Basin for the future.

关 键 词：一阶马尔科夫链优化模型 GM(1 1)模型 土地利用 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]