面板堆石坝施工期坝体沉降变形预测模型研究  

Research on Statistic Prediction Models for Settlement of CFRD during Construction Period

作　　者：曹文波[1] 李民[1] 龙盎[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水电学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]三峡开发总公司,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2008年第2期93-96,共4页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

摘　　要：总结分析了各种统计预测模型的原理和优缺点,基于堆石体沉降变形机理,提出了一种针对坝顶及坝体表面测点的统计预测模型。采用数学优化通用软件1stOpt计算模型的统计参数并与笔者基于matlab、VB等编写的程序计算结果对比,结果表明1stOpt操作简便,拟合效果好,计算速度快,能大大减少建模的工作量。提出了选取多个在工程实际应用中效果较好的预测模型联合对某个工程建模,选择效果较好者作为实际预测模型的建模方法,经实例计算分析表明:提出的模型精度高,拟合效果好,提出的建模方法也是可行的。The various statistic prediction models for settlement are summarized and analyzed. A statistic prediction model for settlement of CFRD is proposed based on the mechanism of deformation. The model parameters are calculated by a mathematical optimization software lstOpt and compared with the calculation result by programs based on Matlab and VB. The results show that the modeling workload can be reduced greatly by lstOpt with the advantages such as the simple and fast calculation, and the fine fitting effect. A method of applying some models with good practical effects to a project and choosing the better one as a practical prediction model is a effective way to establish a good model for a project.

关 键 词：混凝土面板堆石坝 沉降 统计模型 模型参数计算 

分 类 号：TV641.4[水利工程—水利水电工程]