离散型艾滋病传播动力学模型参数取值的分析  

Parameters of a discrete dynamic HIV/AIDS model

作　　者：党如波[1] 赵飞[1] 胡东生[1] 郗园林[1] 张梅喜[1] 张卫东[1] 周天山[2] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,河南省郑州市450001 [2]山东科技大学,山东省青岛市266510

出　　处：《中国组织工程研究与临床康复》2008年第13期2485-2488,共4页Journal of Clinical Rehabilitative Tissue Engineering Research

基　　金：国家“十五”科技攻关重大课题(2004BA719A13-02);2006年度河南省艾滋病科技攻关项目~~

摘　　要：通过分析和探讨离散型艾滋病传播动力学模型参数取值问题,为应用艾滋病传播动力学模型准确有效预测艾滋病疫情提供参考。①介绍了离散型艾滋病传播动力学模型的原理及方法,由公式引出模型中所需要的相关参数,包括初始时刻人口数、新增加的易感人群的人数、感染率、自然死亡率、平均潜伏期、从艾滋病病毒感染者到艾滋病患者的转移率、艾滋病患者的病死率等。②对各个参数取值可能的来源、影响因素等进行分析,如初始时刻人口数是模型的初始值,是进行艾滋病流行情况研究的基础,相关资料主要从疾病预防控制中心、哨点监测等获得,另外也可以根据实际情况和经验进行合理估算;新增加的易感人群的人数可通过人口普查、人口专项调查等资料获得,也可以假设每年的易感人群按原始的易感人群人数的一定比例或一定值增加计算得到;感染率则依赖于艾滋病感染者接触人群的情况、单位时间内易感者个体与艾滋病感染者个体一次性接触被感染的概率、感染者在人群中所占的比例等。To analyze and explore the parameters for discrete dynamic model of HIV/AIDS to provide reference for dynamic model to prevent AIDS. （1）The principle and methods of discrete dynamic model of HIV/AIDS were introduced, and the relevant parameters were deduced according to the formula, including the population of initial time, newly increased susceptible population, infection rate crude mortality ratio, mean incubation period, transfer rate from HIV injection people to AIDS patients, and fatality rate of AIDS patients. （2）The possible resource and influential factors of each parameter were analyzed. For example, the population of initial time, which was the initial data of the model, was the study basis of AIDS prevalence status. The related data were obtained from disease control and prevention centers and other related institutions. Besides, they could also be acquired by reasonable estimation according to practicai data. The newly increased susceptible population could be acquired by census, typical survey and so on. In addition, it could also be obtained by calculating according to the existed susceptible population and the possible increasing ratio. The infection rate depends on the exposed population group of AIDS, the possibility ratio of infection of susceptible population who closely contract with AIDS population, the percent of infected persons, and so on.

关 键 词：艾滋病 动力学模型 参数值 医学工程学 

分 类 号：R318[医药卫生—生物医学工程]