东莞市吸毒人群中艾滋病病毒感染者数量估计  

Estimation of the population size of drug abusers and the number of HIV infected drug abusers in Dongguan city

作　　者：张巧利[1] 王晓霞[1] 陈柏芬[1] 刘艳璋[1] 杨挺立[1] 陈平华[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省东莞市疾病预防控制中心,广东东莞523006

出　　处：《疾病监测》2008年第3期153-155,共3页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：美国CDC全球艾滋病项目(Global AIDS Program-China;GAP)中国项目办事处资助

摘　　要：目的评估广东省东莞市吸毒人群中艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者的数量。方法以东莞市公安局强制戒毒所登记的吸毒人数为基础,对戒毒所内的戒毒者进行问卷调查,采用简易乘数法、捕获-标记-再捕获法对东莞市吸毒人群规模进行估计。根据2004-2006年东莞市吸毒人群HIV感染率监测结果推算吸毒人群中HIV感染者的数量。结果东莞市吸毒人群数量范围为34698～49175人,吸毒人群规模为在册登记数的1.78～2.52倍,是2006年东莞市戒毒所强制戒毒人数的9.61～13.63倍。3年中东莞市强制戒毒所监测到的吸毒人群HIV年均感染率5.12%,据此推算东莞市吸毒人员中HIV感染者的数量范围为1777～2518人。结论各地可根据本地流动人口状况、吸毒的严重性、戒毒力度等综合情况,参考相应的倍数乘以当地吸毒者在册登记数或上一年戒毒所戒毒人数,估计当地的吸毒人群规模并以此为基础估计当地吸毒人员中HIV感染者的数量。Objective The study provided an estimation of the number of HIV-infected drug users in Dongguan city. Methods The survey was based on the number of registered drug abusers from the compulsory drug rehabilitation agency of the Public Security Bureau in Dongguan. The popuiation size was estimated through the simplified multiplier and capture-mark-recaptured methods. The number of HIV infected individuals among these drug abusers was calculated in accordance with the surveillance results of the HIV infection rates in relation to drug abusers in Dongguan from 2004 to 2006. Results The population range of drug abusers in Dongguan city was between 34 698 and 49 175, 1.78 to 2.52 times the registration number and 9.61 to 13.63 times the number of drug users in the compulsory drug rehabilitation agency, Dongguan, 2006. The average annual HIV infection rate was 5.12% among drug abusers over the past three years, reported by the compulsory drug rehabilitation agency in Dongguan. An estimated range of the number of HIV infected drug abusers in Dongguan was 1777 to 2518. Conclusion The registration number of local drug abusers or drug abusers in the rehabilitation agency last year multiplied by the reference multiplier, which is determined by the local mobile demographics, the seriousness of drug abuse, anti-drug achievement and other pertinent factors, can serve as an estimation of the population size of local drug abusers, upon which the calculated number of HIV infected individuals among this population is based.

关 键 词：吸毒者 HIV感染者 规模估计 简易乘数法 捕获-标记-再捕获法 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]