道氏趋势分析理论在医院急诊管理中的应用  

The Application of Charles Dow Theory on Tendency Analysis in the Hospital's Emergency Management

作　　者：王艳[1] 任长海[1] 

机构地区：[1]扬州苏北人民医院门诊部,扬州市225001

出　　处：《江苏卫生事业管理》2008年第2期13-15,共3页Jiangsu Health System Management

摘　　要：运用道氏趋势分析原理，对医院2004年1月～2006年12月间急诊病人数量变化进行趋势研究。通过长期、中期、短期趋势变化曲线，分析急诊总体数量的走向趋势及每月之间峰谷高低，推断出不同的急诊科室在某一段时间内将会受不同因素的影响。其影响因素与流行病学特点和气候有关、与生活方式与突发事件的增加有关。提示应根据就诊趋势变化合理配置急诊人力资源、优化急救流程，避免经验式、粗放的管理形式，进行科学的、精细的医院急诊管理。The article analysed and studied the tendency of the number variation of emergency patients visited the authors＇ hospital between January 2004 and December 2006 with Charles Dow Theory on Tendency Analysis. Through long - term, medium - term and short - term curve of tendency variations, they analysed the tendency of total number of emergencies and the peak and valley of different months, and infered that different emergency departemnts would be affected by various factors at a certain period of time. The factors affected are related to the epidemi- ological features and climate, as well as life style and accidents. The result suggested we should rationally distribut human resources of emergency, optimize the emergency flow in stead of experiential and extensive management so as to manage the hospitalg emergency scientifically and meticulously.

关 键 词：道氏趋势分析 医疗急救水平 医院管理 管理措施 

分 类 号：R197.32[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] R563.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]