用中尺度数值模式诊断强风暴潜势研究  

Potential Forcast Study of Deep Convective System Using NWP

作　　者：张家国[1] 王珏[2] 王叶红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430074 [2]武汉中心气象台,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象科技》2008年第2期129-133,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：湖北省科技攻关计划课题(2004AA306B01);湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目(2003ZZ01)资助

摘　　要：利用中尺度数值预报模式,计算、输出若干与强风暴发生发展有密切关系的常规物理量和对流参数,研究应用模糊逻辑学技术的强天气潜势诊断的方法,开发出雷暴、冰雹、雷雨大风3类对流性天气落区的潜势预报产品,并进行了初步的业务试验。结果表明,融合多个中尺度数值预报模式输出的对流参数和物理量的方法能够较好地诊断强对流天气,对业务应用有一定参考价值。A number of conventional physical variables and convective parameters are computed with mesoscale numerical weather model AREM （Advanced Regional H-coordinate）. The methods for diagnosing severe storm potential are studied accordingly in combination with the fuzzy logic method. Potential forecast products for the location of hailfall, disastrous gust and thunderstorm are developed. The results show that the method can diagnosis well the type and location of severe convective weather, and is of important value for nowcasting in evaluating severe weather potential.

关 键 词：中尺度数值模式 对流参数 强风暴 潜势预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P425.54