不同参数化方案对长江中游汛期降水模式预报试验  

Comparative Experiments on Precipitation Prediction with Different Physic Parameterization Schemes for Middle Reaches of Changjiang River in Flood Season

作　　者：李俊[1] 王斌[1] 王志斌[1] 沈铁元[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象科技》2008年第2期134-138,144,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：湖北省科技攻关计划(2003AA308B01);湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目"中尺度模式关键物理过程降水预报性能的评估研究"资助

摘　　要：利用中尺度模式多个物理过程组合成不同预报方案,对长江中游汛期降水预报进行了对比试验。试验结果表明,使用不同物理过程参数化方案对长江中游汛期降水的预报效果存在差异,这种差异随降水预报量级的提高而愈加明显;而就试验而言,Grell积云对流参数化方案与Blackadar边界层参数化方案的组合预报效果相对较好;就单个降水个例而言,预报效果相对好的参数化方案存在不确定性,集合平均预报相对稳定且优于大多数方案,其对降水评分的改进尤其体现在暴雨以下量级的预报中。Some comparative prediction experiments with different physics parameterization schemes are conducted on precipitation over the middle reaches of the Changjiang River in flood season. The results show that different physic parameterization schemes can lead to different forecasting results, which becomes more evident in predicting higher-grade precipitation. In the experiments, the forecasting combined the Grell cumulus parameterization scheme with the Blackadar planetary boundary layer scheme is better than others. However, for a certain case, it is uncertain which scheme is better. The result of ensemble mean prediction is relatively stable and superior to most single predictions. The improvements in precipitation prediction can be seen mainly in the situation with the rainfall being less than 50mm.

关 键 词：物理过程 对比试验 集合预报 

分 类 号：P43[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.6