构建脑卒中发病定性预测系统的理论与方法  

Constructions of Theory and Methodology for the Prewarning System of Qualitativeness in Stroke

作　　者：宋治[1] 郑文[1] 谷绍娟[1] 徐伟[1] 朱海霞[1] 薛俐[2] 杨期东[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学湘雅三医院神经科,湖南省长沙市410013 [2]中南大学湘雅三医院老干管理中心 [3]中南大学湘雅医院神经科

出　　处：《中国全科医学》2008年第7期619-622,共4页Chinese General Practice

基　　金：湖南省卫生厅资助项目(NO.B2005-064)

摘　　要：构建脑卒中预警系统需从定性预测与定量预测二个方面进行。定性预测是构建判断脑卒中发病性质的方法学,即判断可能发病的性质,是出血性还是缺血性。全面考查影响脑卒中发病的影响因素,从生物、心理、社会三个方面,在系统理论的指导下,解决好个体与群体、定性与定量、整体与部分、内因与外因、均衡与非均衡、渐进与突变的主要矛盾关系,通过建立"预测树",按"点"、"线"、"面"、"体"进行分层预测,综合运用数理分析方法,并重点从"生物面"上的各"线"、"点"构建脑卒中发病定性预测系统,可望达到脑卒中发病定性预测的目的。Qualitative and quantitative predictions are the two main directions to construct the stroke prewarning systems. Qualitative prediction is to construct the methodology for judge the pathogenic nature of stroke, or to judge whether the na- ture of possible attack is ischemic or hemorrhagic. The purpose for qualitativeness of stroke attack can be gained if the following are well done： All of the related factors to stroke attack should be brought into the consideration from three respects of biology, psychology and society. Under the guidance of systematic theory the major contradictory relationships of individual and group, qualitativeness and quantitativeness, partition and integration, internal cause and external one, equilibrium and non - equilibri- um, and gradation and mutation should be well resolved. The predictive tree should be established for stratified prediction accord- ing to the order of point, line, square and sphere. The mathematical analysis should be synthetically taken. The point and line of biologic square should be in focus in constructing the prewarning system of qualitativeness.

关 键 词：脑卒中(脑血管意外) 预测系统 理论与方法 统计学 

分 类 号：R32[医药卫生—人体解剖和组织胚胎学]