不等概率抽样在区带油气资源预测中的应用  

Application of varying probabilistic sampling in hydrocarbon resources prediction

作　　者：解国军[1] 杨丽娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国石油大学数理系,北京102249

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2008年第2期25-27,31,共4页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

摘　　要：利用油气区带已发现油气藏储量和发现顺序的信息,探讨了应用不放回不等概率抽样理论对区带油气资源量进行预测的方法。在假设区带油藏总体服从帕莱托分布的基础上,利用对区带总体资源量以及油气藏样本储量和的期望的近似估计,该文解决了当发现某一油藏的概率不完全与它的储量成正比时无法利用Horvitz-Thompson估计量直接估算区带油气资源总量的问题。通过对该预测方法检验,从统计推断的角度来看预测结果与实际情况符合得很好。A hydrocarbon resources prediction method discussed herein using the data of discovered reserves of pools and their discovery sequences, applied the theory of varying probabilistic sampling with no replacement. The Horvitz - Thompson estimator cannot be used straightly to obtain the play petroleum potential if the probability of finding a pool is not strictly proportional to its magnitude. To solve the problem, the approximate estimations of the total amount of play resource and the expectation of sample sum are utilized with the assumption that the pool population obeys Pareto law. The method are checked up and the predicted results accords well to the real situation from the point of view of the statistical inference.

关 键 词：资源评价 发现过程 抽样 Horvitz—Thompson估计量 油气区带 

分 类 号：TE155[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]