博弈论在公众聚集场所消防工作中的应用  

On the application of game theory to the fire supervision management in public assembly occupancies

作　　者：白凤领[1] 高瑞霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院消防指挥系,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2008年第2期153-156,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：公众聚集场所火灾危险性大,发生火灾后人员疏散困难,极易造成群死群伤事故。本文针对公众聚集场所火灾隐患整改问题,对火灾隐患单位和公安消防部门之间的关系进行博弈分析,建立了一种符合现状的简单罚款监督博弈模型,并分析其存在的缺陷,即对于单位违反规定不治理火灾隐患只进行简单的罚款不足以约束单位的消防安全行为。又在肯定其作用的基础上,进一步完善并提出单位承担责任的监督博弈模型。通过对这两种博弈模型的计算、对比和分析,论证了监督博弈模型的可行性,认为监督博弈模型能更加有效地约束单位的消防安全行为,得出监督力度、惩罚尺度与检查概率的相互制约关系,并有针对性地提出改进的具体要求和措施。认为应扩大单位承担责任范围和增大处罚力度,并应将部分罚款作为消防监督部门的奖金和补助,以提高公安消防部门监督的积极性。Aimed to study the safety problems of public assembly places, this paper has done a simulated analysis over the relationship between the entities of fire potential perils and the public fire departments by the virtue of a simple game model about the penalty supervision which is generally believed consistent with the real-life actuality, In our analysis, we have fully appreciated the potential role of the game theory in forecasting likely disasters so as to optimize and point out the availability of the supervision game model, whereas we also tend to show some of its shortcomings in its actual application. It is known that fire accidents that are likely to take place in public assembly places tend to be so dangerous that may lead to serious human casualties and material losses. In our research, we have done a lot of computations, careful comparison and analysis of two models so as to be able to prove feasibility of the game-theory application, and in turn put forward some specific requirements and measures, on whose basis, we have arrived at the conclusion about the relationship between the degree of supervision and penalty and the checking probability. Through discussion, we have realized that the units should be expanded into its scope of responsibility and penalty, at the same time make the fine as bonuses and allowances of public fire departments, so as to heighten the enthusiasm of the public fire-prevention and fighting departments.

关 键 词：博弈论 公众聚集场所 消防工作 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]