西部地区延长退耕还林补偿最适期限的灰色预测  

Gray Forecast on the Optimal Extension Deadline of the Compensation Polity for Conversion of Farmland to Forestry Project in Western China

作　　者：黄文清[1] 张俊飚[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《林业科学》2008年第4期144-150,共7页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70142028)后续成果;教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-06-0669)项目资助

摘　　要：构建西部产业结构和农村居民生活水平的灰色预测模型GM(1,1),预测西部地区构建起较为合理的农业产业结构的时间大概在2017年,西部农村居民生活水平达到小康阶段的时间大概也在2017年,由此得出西部地区延长退耕还林补偿最适期限在10年左右的结论。Compensation polity was the key to success in conversion of farmland to forestry project （ CFFP）. Given these areas had not yet built up a healthy industrial structure, and there were the possibility of rehabilitation deforestation, extending deadline of the compensation polity for CFFP was raised. Based on this, by constructing gray model （ GM （ 1,1 ） ） of the industrial structure and the standard of living of rural residents in western China, this paper forecasted the optimal extension deadline of the compensation polity for CFFP in western China is about 10 years. In other words, a more reasonable agricultural structure could be built up, and the standard of living of rural residents could achieve the well-off stage in 2017 in western China.

关 键 词：灰色预测 补偿期限 退耕还林 西部地区 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济]