中国水旱灾害危险性的时空格局研究  

On spatiotemporal patterns of flood and drought hazards in China

作　　者：王静爱[1] 毛佳[1] 贾慧聪[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2008年第1期115-121,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B02)

摘　　要：水灾与旱灾之间,不论在形成的原因上或是在治理措施上,都存在着相当密切的关系。受季风气候影响,中国的洪水和干旱灾害同时并存,近年来我国遭受极端水旱灾害事件的次数比以往增加很多。基于县域统计单元的水旱灾害信息,以总时段(1949-2005年)、分时段(1956-1965年,1996-2005年)、分季度和分月份4种时间尺度来划分,选取2359个县域单元上的灾害频数作为衡量水旱灾害危险性的指标,主要从危险性整体转移、高危险区转移、转移的形成因素以及高危险区的防灾减灾对策几个角度,探讨了中国水灾、旱灾以及水旱综合灾害的危险性时空分异规律。研究表明:近57年来,中国水旱灾害危险性的整体格局呈现东西分异,东部远远高于西部,这是气候-地貌-人类活动相互作用的产物。1956-1965年,我国水旱灾害危险性格局的东西分异明显;1996-2005年,水旱灾害危险性格局不变,高值区域明显增大,向东北、西北、南方扩展。水旱灾害危险性格局的季节变化显著,整体呈现夏季水旱灾害危险性高,春季次之,秋冬季危险性低的状况;月际变化与降水带的推移和承灾体的月际变化相似,7月水旱灾害危险性达到峰值。上述研究结果可为水旱灾害风险区划以及水旱灾害高危险区的减灾战略规划提供科学依据。Flood has a close relationship with drought in causing reasons and control countermeasures. Based on sta- tistic information of flood and drought for county units in total period （ 1949 - 2005 ） , period - segment （ 1956 - 1965,1996 -2005） , season and month scales, we selected disaster frequency of 2359 counties as the index and discussed spatial and temporal hazard patterns of flood, drought and integrated flood - drought disaster. In recent 57 years, the integrated patterns of flood and drought hazard show the east - west differentiation and the hazard in east is far higher than that in west, which is a product of climate - landscape - human activity interaction. In 1956 -1965, the pattern of flood and drought hazards in China showed an obvious east- west differentiation. In 1996 - 2005, flood and drought hazards in China showed the same pattern, high value area increased evidently and further expanded to northeast, northwest and south. Seasonal hazards in China is obvious. Both high flood/drough variation of spatial and temporal pattern of flood and drought t hazard concentrates in summer, spring takes the second place, and low hazard is in autumn and winter. Monthly variation of flood and drought hazards pattern in China is closely related to the variation of precipitation belt and monthly variation of hazard - affected body. The peak appears in July. The result of research will offer scientific basis for flood - drought disaster risk regionalization and disaster reduction policys drawing up in high hazard regions.

关 键 词：水旱灾害 危险性 时空格局 高危险区 中国 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]