基于蒙特卡洛模拟的配电网三相潮流算法  

Three-phase Power Flow Calculation Method for Distribution System Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

作　　者：田洪[1] 吴蓓[1] 张焰[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240

出　　处：《现代电力》2008年第1期19-23,共5页Modern Electric Power

摘　　要：为了能更加准确地通过计算反映配电网实际潮流分布,以便为配电网规划和运行分析提供依据,综合考虑了负荷波动和网络故障对配电网潮流产生的影响,用蒙特卡洛模拟方法从一年的负荷样本中按照均匀分布随机抽取样本,并按照正态分布对样本进行修正以模拟负荷波动的随机性,再通过比较均匀分布下抽取的[0,1]区间内的随机数与设备故障概率统计值来模拟设备故障的随机性。在配电网三相潮流计算模型的基础上,用前推回代法进行潮流计算,同时设计出一种节点搜索策略将配电网潮流算法与蒙特卡洛模拟有效地结合起来,从而形成了一种能更加准确地反映配电网潮流随机特性的潮流算法。最后通过对IEEE-123节点系统的分析计算验证了研究的有效性。A Power flow calculation method reflecting the random characteristics of distribution system is proposed. The influence caused by load fluctuation and network fault is taken into account. The annual load samples are taken at random according to uniform distribution with Monte-Carlo simulation, and these samples are corrected to simulate the random performances of load waves according to normal distribution. The parameters and statistical values of equipment fault probability are taken from [0, 1] and compared to simulate the random degree of equipment faults. The forward-backward arithmetic and the three-phase model of distribution system are employed. A node-searching strategy is suggested to enable the Monte-Carlo simulation to work with forward-backward method. The proposed method is tested in IEEE-123 test feeder to show its feasibility and validity.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛模拟 节点搜索 前推回代 三相潮流 配电网 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]