经济波动与消费结构变迁互动关系研究  

Study on the Correlation between Economic Fluctuation and Consumption Structure

作　　者：黄赜琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2008年第4期105-116,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家教育部社科青年项目"经济波动与宏观调控的动态一般均衡研究"(06JC790029);上海社科项目"中国经济波动与动态调控研究"(2006BJL005);国家社科项目"开放经济下的中国真实经济周期模型实证研究"(05BJL018)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：文章利用1981-2006年中国实际经济数据,实证研究了经济波动与消费结构变迁的互动关系。研究发现,一是各类消费品价格易变性普遍大于产出,且以住房、家庭用品和交通为代表的耐用品价格波动普遍小于以食品为代表的非耐用品价格波动;而消费量的易变性则相反,这一波动特征事实普遍存在于发展中国家,而发达国家则相反。二是随着中国经济体制改革的深入,经济波动与居民消费结构变迁相互影响和促进,在经济环境发生重大变化的情况下,需要对消费需求进行有效的宏观调控。This paper uses China＇s economic data during the period of 1981- 2006, to make an empirical study on the correlation between economic fluctuation and consumption structure. Then some conclusions are drawn： Firstly, fluctuations in consumer price index are larger than those in output, and the price volatility in durable goods is smaller than that in nondurable goods, while converses to the total amount volatility. The fluctuation fact generally exists in the developing country, while conversely in the developed country. Secondly, with the reformation in economic system, business cycle and consumption structure interact and improve each other. As the economic circumstances change largely, it＇ s necessary to implement effective macro control on the consumer demand.

关 键 词：经济波动 消费结构 消费价格指数 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济] F126.1