需求信息可部分观察时供应链中的信息汇聚效应  

Pooled Information Effect in Supply Chains with Partially Observable Demand Information

作　　者：刘开军[1] 张子刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2008年第2期83-90,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70471042);湖北省科技攻关项目(2006AA401B72)

摘　　要：考虑由一个供应商和两个零售商组成的二级供应链,供应链中的上下游企业共享需求信息。假设产品的需求分布未知且需求信息只可部分观察,企业按贝叶斯法则更新自己的先验。由于需求信息在供应商处汇聚,供应商与零售商占有的信息量不同,这就可能扭曲供应商对市场需求的认识,造成供应商认为市场过度膨胀或萎缩,我们把这种现象称为信息汇聚效应。本文将给出信息汇聚效应的定义,并给出在两周期供应链中发生信息汇聚效应的充分条件,进而推出发生信息汇聚效应概率的下界。数值算例表明,在一定情况下,在供应链中发生信息汇聚的概率会很可观。This paper considers a two-stage supply chain consisting of a supplier and two retailers where information is shared between firms. It＇s assumed that the demand distribution of the products is unknown and the demand information is partially observable. Firms refresh their priors on demand according to the Bayesian rule. As the information pools at the supplier, the supplier occupies more information than the retailers, which may distort the supplier＇s knowledge of the market demand. We call this phenomenon pooled information effect. This paper presents the definition of pooled information effect and derives the sufficient condition that pooled information effect is to take place. Numerical example shows that under certain conditions, it is well possible that pooled information effect will occur in supply chains.

关 键 词：供应链管理 信息汇聚效应 信息共享 贝叶斯库存管理 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]