上海能源系统MARKAL模型与情景分析  

Study on Shanghai Energy System MARKAL Model and Scenario Analysis

作　　者：余岳峰[1] 胡建一[2] 章树荣 罗永浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院,上海200240 [2]上海社会科学院,上海200020 [3]上海市能源研究会,上海200020

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报》2008年第3期360-364,369,共6页Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University

基　　金：美国斯坦福大学合作项目

摘　　要：采用国际上通用的能源系统MARKAL模型,根据上海经济和社会发展的趋势,以及能源需求的增长,以中长期发展为研究目标,建立上海能源系统模型.模型设计了1个基准模型,它包含了一次能源供应,现有能源技术和未来先进的能源技术,以及终端能源需求预测;根据不同SO2排放策略作为约束条件设计了2个情景模型;通过模型的计算,实现基准模型和情景模型的对比与分析.该模型将为上海未来能源策略和政策研究提供通用的系统计算模型和研究方法,并为研究上海未来经济发展模式、低排放能源技术发展策略和能源政策研究奠定了基础.A comprehensive model of Shanghai energy system was provided based on common bottom-up MARKAL model, which assesses the future competitiveness of different types of fuels and the future growth in end-use energy service demand in Shanghai under different scenarios and conditions. For MARKAL model building, reference base estimates for end-use energy service demand are developed on the basis of Shanghai economic and demographic projection and characteristics of existing technologies and technologies available in the future, as well as potential sources of primary energy supply. The model is calculated subject to the constraints of SO2 emissions for reference base and other scenarios. The model running results were analyzed and discussed. The model establishes the foundation for the study of energy technology development and energy policy in the future.

关 键 词：上海能源系统 能源政策 能源技术 MARKAL模型 

分 类 号：TK019[动力工程及工程热物理]