我国东、中、西部地区经济发展与碳排放的关联分析及比较  

Correlation Analysis and Comparison of the Economic Development and Carbon Emissions in the Eastern,Central and Western Part of China

作　　者：谭丹[1] 黄贤金[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国土资源与旅游学系,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2008年第3期54-57,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(06&ZD026);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-05-0451);江苏省重点软科学基金项目(BR2007039)

摘　　要：随着我国社会经济的迅速发展,能源消耗和环境问题日益严重,特别是由于碳排放带来的温室效应已经成为全世界关注的焦点问题。全球气候变暖已经对人类社会的可持续发展带来了严峻的挑战,深度触及了农业和粮食安全、水资源安全、生态安全和公共卫生安全。为此,在测算我国东部、中部以及西部三大地区的碳排放总量的基础上,分析三大地区碳排放的特征和差异,结果表明我国东部地区的碳排放量最大、中部地区次之、西部最少,并且从碳排放的增长速度上看,东部地区增速最快,中部最慢;采用灰色关联度方法分析三大地区生产总值与碳排放之间的关系,进而解释它们之间碳排放存在差异的原因,并针对上述的研究结论提出减少我国碳排放的政策建议,以为我国发展低碳经济服务。With the rapid soeio-economic development of China, energy consumption and environmental problems become increasingly serious, especially the greenhouse effect which results from carbon emission and becomes the worldwide focus. Global wanning brought severe challenges to the sustainable development of human society, and has great effect on agriculture and food security, water safety, ecological safety and public health security, The article calculates the amount of carbon emission in the eastern, central and western part of China, and analyzes the characteristics and differences of carbon emission of the three regions, The result shows that the eastern part has the biggest amount of carbon emission, while the western part has the smallest. From the perspective of growth rate of carbon emissions, the eastern part is the fastest and the central part is the slowest, Then the author analyzes the relationship between GDP of the three regions and the carbon emissions by the Grey correlation analysis method, which explains the difference on the carbon emission of the three regions. Finally the paper brings forward some suggestions to reduce the carbon emission of China and to serve the development of low-carben economy in China.

关 键 词：碳排放 灰色关联度 三大地区 低碳经济 

分 类 号：TQ127.11[化学工程—无机化工] F127[经济管理—世界经济]