非统计学方法在景观格局变化研究中的应用  

Application of Non-statistical Methods to Research on Landscape Pattern Change

作　　者：刘明[1] 王克林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院亚热带农业生态研究所

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2008年第2期58-62,120,共6页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向资助项目(KZCX2-SW-415)

摘　　要：景观格局变化的驱动力和生态环境响应研究中,通常存在着数据具有不确定性,时间序列样本量不足和"噪声"干扰等问题。系统阐述了灰色分析、最大似然法、PanelData模型的原理和应用背景,并选择洞庭湖流域的年入湖径流量变化,湘水流域景观格局变化的水文响应,以及洞庭湖流域景观格局变化的驱动力等作为实证分析对象。结果表明,灰色分析、最大似然法和PanelData模型不但可以有效解决上述问题,而且通过与经典统计学方法相结合,还能使研究效率进一步提高,研究结论更加科学、直观。There are some common problems in the study of driving forces of landscape pattern change and ecological environment effects, such as the uncertainty of data, insufficiency of sample of the time series data, and “noise” disturbance. After these questions are described, this paper explains the principles and application background of gray analysis method, maximum likelihood method, and Panel Data model. Then, dynamic of yearly runoff into the Dongting Lake, hydrology response to change of landscape pattern in Xiangjiang River basin, and driving forces of landscape pattern change in Dongting Lake watershed are select- ed to test the result in the use of these non-statistical methods. Results show that the methods are effective, specially when they are combined with the classical statistics methods such as correlation analysis and principal components analysis. Therefore, the research efficiency and scientific level of the results can be further improved.

关 键 词：灰色分析 最大似然法 PANEL Date模型 景观格局 

分 类 号：O211.61[理学—概率论与数理统计] X4[理学—数学]