中国黄土高原月降水对全球变化的响应  

Response of Monthly Precipitation in the Loess Plateau in China to Global Climate Change

作　　者：傅朝[1] 王毅荣 

机构地区：[1]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省定西市气象局,甘肃定西743000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2008年第3期447-451,共5页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：中国科技部科研院所社会公益研究项目“中国干旱气象灾害监测预警方法研究”(2004DIB5J192)资助

摘　　要：利用40年月降水资料，采用EOF和小波分析方法，分析了黄土高原月降水变化特征。结果表明：月降水的全区一致性程度高；月降水演变中，各月的增加速度不同，月降水增加速度在-12．1—6．3mm／10a之间；月降水区域响应存在明显减少、明显增加和不明显3种类型。降水明显减少类型中，在1985年发生突变，减少趋势加剧；趋势不明显的类型中，振荡周期相对简单清晰，2—4年振荡周期显著；降水明显增加类型中，在1978／1977年存在阶段点（界点），降水明显趋于增多。另外，月降水与海温和副热带高压问存在一定的联系。In this paper, the change of monthly precipitation in the Loess Plateau of China and its response to global climate change are analyzed based on the monthly precipitation data observed by 52 observational stations in the plateau during the period from 1961 to 2000 using the EOF （empirical orthogonal function） and wavelet analysis. The results show that the change similarity of monthly precipitation in the plateau is high, but the change extent of monthly precipitation is different from different months and varies in a range of - 12.1 mm/10 a～6.3 mm/ 10 a. There are three types of regional monthly precipitation response, i.e. the significant increase, significant decrease and insignificant change. The monthly precipitation in March and June is significantly increased, especially in June and increased by 6.3 mm/10 a; it in April, August, September, October and November is significantly decreased, especially in September and decreased by 12.1 mm/10 a; and its change in December, January, February and July is not so significant. A significant decrease of monthly precipitation occurred in 1985 ; the insignificant precipitation change is aperiodic occurred in 1978/1977. Moreov （ North Pacific） and subtropical , but the 2～4-year fluctuation is significant; a significant precipitation increase er, there is a certain correlation between the monthly precipitation and the SST high.

关 键 词：降水 全球变化 EOF法 小波法 黄土高原 中国 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]