模式初始场信息对江淮暴雨预报的影响  

Effect of model initial information on heavy-rain prediction in Jianghuai

作　　者：刘家峻[1] 张立凤[1] 罗雨[1] 牛震宇 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院 [2]解放军93642部队

出　　处：《解放军理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第1期91-97,共7页Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2004CB418300)

摘　　要：为了研究2003年7月3、4日发生在江淮地区暴雨过程的发生发展机制,揭示AREM对初始场的敏感性,采用1°×1°的NCEP资料对这次暴雨过程的环流形势进行了分析,利用AREM模式对暴雨过程进行了控制试验和初值敏感性试验。采用9点平滑对初始场进行处理,平滑后预报与控制预报的对比结果表明:初始场的信息对降水预报精度有着很大的影响。模式24 h的降水预报对初始的湿度场最敏感,对初始风场和温度场较敏感,对初始位势高度场不敏感;相对于高层来说,对低层风场、湿度场更为敏感。湿度场、温度场高低空配置对降水雨量和范围预报影响较大;对流层低层切变线的辐合作用,高低空急流配置及所维持的强上升运动,低层暖湿气流的水汽输送,是这次暴雨的发生发展的机制。To investigate the generation and development mechanism of Jianghuai heavy-rain on July 3-4,2003 and to study the sensitivity of AREM for the initial field,the flow of the heavy-rain was analysed and diagnosed with the 1°×1°NCEP analysis.Besides,the control experiments and the sensitivity experiments for initial field were conducted by AREM in the process of heavy-rain.After 9-piont filtering to deal with the initial field the following experimental results are obtained.Firstly,Meiyu front associated with heavy rain is an important reason;secondly,the factors resulting in Meiyu front would be the same as those resulting in the heavy rain;thirdly the initial information has very important effect on precipitation prediction;fourthly,the model＇s precipitation prediction for 24 hours is the most sensitive to initial humidity,very sensitive to initial wind and temperature and not sensitive to initial geo-potential height;and lastly,in contrast with upper layers,the precipitation prediction is more sensitive to lower layers.The allocation of humidity and temperature between the upper and lower layers has great effect on quantity and the range of precipitation.The convergence due to shear-line of lower troposphere,the allocation of jet stream between the upper and lower layers, severe ascending movement and the transfer of moisture from warm and wet air on the lower layer are the generation and development mechanism of the heavy-rain.

关 键 词：暴雨 天气分析 改进的有限区域数值预报模式 初始场 敏感试验 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]