汉江流域径流时空变化趋势分析  

Temporal and Spatial Trends Analysis of the Runoff in Hanjiang Basin

作　　者：陈华[1] 闫宝伟[1] 郭生练[1] 张洪刚 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2008年第3期49-53,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50679063);国际合作重点项目(2005DFA20520);水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金(2006C015);湖北省自然科学基金(2007ABA061)

摘　　要：汉江流域是南水北调中线工程的水源地,应用Mann-Kendall非线性检验方法,分析了汉江流域干流和各子流域1951—2003年春、夏、秋、冬径流的长期变化趋势。分析发现1991年是汉江流域年径流量趋势变化的突变点,从20世纪80年代的丰水期进入90年代的枯水期;在显著性水平α=0.05上,春季和冬季汉江流域许多子流域径流量长期变化趋势呈下降趋势。分析结果将为南水北调中线工程水资源配置决策提供科学依据。Hanjiang Basin is the water source of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）. The temporal and spatial trends of the seasonal runoff were detected by the Mann-Kendall test method in this Basin from 1951 to 2003. There was a climate jump in 1991 in Hanjiang Basin when the runoff changed from the wet period in 1980s to the dry period in 1990s. The results indicated that at α=0.05 significance level there were descending trends for the runoff in many parts of Hanjiang Basin in the Spring and Winter. The results will provide the rational references for water resources allocation decision of the SNWDP.

关 键 词：MANN-KENDALL 汉江流域 径流 趋势分析 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]