河流健康系统评价的集对分析模型  

Set pair analysis model for river health system assessment

作　　者：胡晓雪[1] 杨晓华[1] 郦建强[2] 耿雷华[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计管理局,北京100011 [3]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源研究所,南京210029

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2008年第5期164-170,176,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2003CB415204);国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAB14B02)

摘　　要：考虑到河流健康系统评价过程中的不确定性和复杂性因素,基于集对分析理论,引入了能体现系统确定性与不确定性的同异反联系度(IDC)的计算公式,并建立了河流健康系统评价的集对分析模型(SPAM).模型从三个层次阐明评价过程中集对分析理论的具体意义并将多指标表示成一个能从总体上衡量河流健康的n元联系数.用层次分析法确定指标权重,从主客观两方面定量计算河流健康程度.将SPAM应用于澜沧江健康系统的评价,结论是:就总指标来说,河流健康评价等级为"良";就各个子系统来说,服务功能和生态功能相对好于其它三个功能.SPAM模型能充分利用研究问题所包含的不确定性信息,将辩证认识与定量描述有机结合起来,是河流健康复杂系统综合评价的一种新方法.In view of uncertainty and complexity in the process of river health assessment, based on Set Pair Analysis （SPA） theory, identity-discrepancy-contrary （IDC） connection degree formula which can embody certainties and uncertainties of the assessment system is introduced and Set Pair Analysis Model （SPAM） is established in fiver health system assessment. The meaning of SPA apphed to river health system assessment in three levels is fully analyzed. All Indexes can be summarized into n-member connection number. Aumdytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） is applied to calculate the weighing values so the health degree of the fiver can be calculated from the objective and subjective evaluations. As an example, lancing fiver is assessed by SPAM. The results show that： from the whole system, the health degree of the fiver is fine; from the subsystem, the health degrees of service and ecology functions are better than others. The results express the health degree of the fiver on different levels and different aspects. SPAM combines qualitative description with quantitative analysis and takes full advantage of uncertainty. It is a new model for the fiver health assessment.

关 键 词：河流健康 不确定性 集对分析 同异反联系度 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]