上海地区百年农业气候资源变化特征  

Change Characteristics of Shanghai's Agroclimatic Resources in the Last Hundred Years

作　　者：周伟东[1] 朱洁华[2] 王艳琴[3] 李军[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]上海市气象科技服务中心,上海200030 [3]上海中心气象台,上海200030

出　　处：《资源科学》2008年第5期642-647,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(编号:CCSF2006-37)

摘　　要：本文应用滑动t检验、Yamamoto’s检验、功率谱等数理统计方法分析了上海1873年～2006年气温、降水、辐射、日照等资料，结果表明：上海地区年平均气温有明显升高趋势，平均每10年增加0、14℃，冬季和秋季的增温最为显著。平均每10年增加0．16℃；日平均气温5日滑动平均稳定通过0℃、10℃活动积温呈明显的上升趋势，平均每10年分别增加52．6℃·d和49．6℃·d；无霜冻期每10年增加8．7天。年降水量略有增加，其中春季降水增加显著，平均每10年增加31．8mm，秋季则略有下降。通过正态检验及概率估算，上海出现春涝的概率为20.43％，出现秋旱的概率为50．72％；年内降水分布不均，降水集中，暴雨日数增多。上海地区总辐射、水平面直接辐射呈显著的下降趋势，平均每10年分别减少102.1MJ／m^2和156．2MJ／m^2，散射辐射有明显的增加趋势，平均每10年增加47．6NJ／m^2，日照时数略有减少。Using observation data including temperature, rainfall, radiation and sunlight hours for the period of 1873 - 2006, we analyzed long-term changes in agroclimatic resources in Shanghai in the context of global climate warming. The analysis included statistical methods such as running T-test, Yamamoto＇ s test, and power spectrum analysis. Results indicate that the heat resources of Shanghai increased over the study period. Specifically, the annual average temperature of Shanghai exhibited a clear trend of increase at a rate of 0.14℃/10a. This increase is most distinct during winter and autumn （0.16℃/10a）. The cumulative temperature corresponding to the five-day running average temperature for days reaching 0℃ and 10℃ showed clear increasing trends, with rates of 52.6 ℃ · d/10a and 49.6 ℃ · d/10a, respectively. Increased temperatures during autumn and winter may result in a gradual reduction of the capacity of agricultural crops to withstand cold. As for long-term changes in Shanghai＇ s water resources, statistical analysis shows that annual rainfall increased slightly and spring rainfall increased markedly, while autumn rainfall decreased slightly. Analysis using normality tests and probability estimation shows that floods and droughts tended to occur primarily during spring （20.43% probability） and fall （50.72%）. Annual heavy rainfall events increased over time. Long-term changes in water resources, especially related to floods and droughts, will inevitably exert influences on Shanghai＇ s agricultural development. Measures should be adopted to relieve pressure from floods or droughts and facilitate adaptation. As for long-term changes in light energy resources, results indicate that total radiation and horizontal direct radiation decreased, by respective rates of 102.1MJ·m^-2/10a and 156.2MJ· m^-2/10a. Meanwhile, scattered radiation increased at a rate of 47.6MJ·m^-2/10a. In addition, the duration of sunshine hours in Shanghai decreased slightly over the study period. The total a

关 键 词：气候变暖 农业气候资源 变化特征 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]