建设项目动态联盟风险识别及预警  

Identification and Early Warning Model study on Dynamic Alliance of Projects

作　　者：黄健柏[1] 薛亮[1] 肖太庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《系统工程》2008年第3期98-104,共7页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：建设项目动态联盟的成败在很大程度上取决于决策者对于联盟面临风险的识别和预警。本文针对建设项目动态联盟面临的风险进行了风险识别设计,首先依据风险的来源划分了项目动态联盟可能面临的风险的种类,其次明确了动态联盟风险识别程序;在此基础上,构建了包含六元素(目标、文化、方法、组织、信息、过程)的建设项目动态联盟风险预警模式,六个元素构成了风险预警的有机整体,运用管理熵理论对动态联盟风险预警度量进行了量化处理,以熵权从内外两个来源确定动态联盟的风险度量,并以传递熵概念来明确预警信号指标的准确性,给出了一个较为完整和准确的量化预警模型,以期利于建设项目动态联盟决策者的风险防范应对策略制定。This essay identified the risks of dynamic alliance projects, marked off the sort of risks it face with, and described the process of identification of risks. Then the essay constructed early warning model of dynamic alliance of projects which contains of six elements including objective, culture, method, organization, information and process. And made the measurement of the early warning system modeled quantitatively with management entropy. The essay used entropy weight to measure the dynamic alliance risk, and used transmitting entropy to describe the veracity of the early warning information, thus provided a intact and exact quantitative early warning model which can benefit the decision maker of dynamic alliance to take measurements.

关 键 词：建设项目动态联盟 风险识别 风险预警 管理熵 

分 类 号：F406[经济管理—产业经济]