管理浮动汇率制度下人民币汇率决定模型研究  

STUDY ON THE MODELING OF RMB EXCHANGE RATES DETERMINATION UNDER THE MANAGED FLOATING RATE SYSTEM

作　　者：魏巍贤[1] 朱楚珠[2] 蒋正华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学工商管理学院 [2]西安交通大学人口与经济研究所

出　　处：《系统工程学报》1997年第4期92-100,共9页Journal of Systems Engineering

摘　　要：根据现阶段我国的实际经济背景和管理浮动汇率制度的特点，应用经济理论和系统分析方法，通过对人民币汇率决定机制的分析，建立人民币汇率决定模型．根据所建立的模型，得出如下结论：人民币对美元汇率的变化率是由西方主要货币对美元汇率的变化率、商品的相对价格的变化率、国内外利率差、外债余额对收入比率的变化率及国内货币供应量的变化率共同决定的．实证分析结果表明，本文所建立的模型能较好地反映现阶段人民币汇率的客观实际．In this paper,the mechanism of RMB exchange rate determination is studied by using economics theory and the method of system analysis under the background of China's economics and the characteristics of managed floating rate system.The models of RMB exchange rate determination are constructed skillfully.According to these models,it is concluded that the change in RMB against US dollar exchange rate depend on the change in the main foreign currency vs.US dollar exchange rates,the relative prices of traded goods,the foreign debt to total income ratios,domestic money supply and on the differential in real interest rates.Empirical results reported in this study suggest that the models can explain the variations of RMB against US dollar exchange rate at present.

关 键 词：汇率决定模型 浮动汇率制度 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]