金融发展与经济增长——基于1952-2007年中国数据的再检验  

An Empirical Analysis of Financial Development and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：陈伟国[1] 张红伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2008年第3期49-56,共8页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文分别以金融抑制论和金融结构论为指导,根据中国的实际情况,建立数学模型,进行多元回归分析,并利用VAR因果关系检验和方差分解探索中国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系。结论表明:(1)无论是金融抑制论还是金融结构论,金融发展与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关;(2)对于模型1来说,金融发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,属于需求追随型;而模型2并没有显示金融发展与经济增长存在明显的因果关系,以银行为主导的金融结构通过内在传导机制对经济增长产生影响;(3)从金融发展对经济波动解释的力度来看,金融抑制论对解释金融发展与经济增长之间的关系比较弱,而金融结构论对经济增长的解释力要强。因此,在强调市场对金融资源优化配置的同时,更加关注以银行业为主导的金融机构改革,理顺金融发展与经济增长内在机制,以实现金融发展与经济增长相互促进、共同发展的目标。Based on the theory of the financial repression and financial structure, this paper applies the VAR Granger causality tests and Variance decomposition analytical tools to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China. The conclusions indicate that: (1) significant positive relationship exists between financial development and economic growth; (2) there exists only single-direction causality between financial development and economic growth and the economic growth leads to financial development for model one, there is no causality between financial development and economic growth for model two and the financial structure dominated by banking system indirectly influences the economic growth; (3) financial structure is more stronger than financial repression in explaining economic growth. Thus, we should put more emphasis on financial institution reform to coordinate financial development and economic growth when we stress market forces in allocating financial resources.

关 键 词：金融发展 经济增长 金融抑制论 金融结构论 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F124