具有中介状态长输管线失效故障树的可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis for Fault Tree Analysis on the Long Distance Pipeline Failure with Intermediate State

作　　者：张磊[1] 韩阳[1] 王威[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学防灾减灾工程研究所,郑州450052 [2]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100022

出　　处：《河南科学》2008年第5期571-574,共4页Henan Science

基　　金：国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ16B03)

摘　　要：长输管线常受到人为因素、应力、腐蚀介质与杂质的影响,致使管线发生失效,严重影响了管道的可靠性.在长输管线失效故障树分析的基础上,引入"安全—中介—失效"工作模式,从安全、中介、失效3个方面反映长输管线系统的可靠(完全正常地运行)、可靠与不可靠的模糊中介过渡(局部的暂时的轻微的故障,可简称为异常)、不可靠(失效,或简称为反常).通过采用随机事件的S并运算和T交运算规则,建立具有中介状态长输管线系统失效故障树可靠性向量的计算方法.同时考虑故障树基本事件间的失效相关参数!的不同取值对系统可靠性的影响.算例分析表明,该方法全面描述了系统可靠性状态,更加符合工程实际.The long distance pipeline often comes under the influence of human factor, stress, corrosive medium and impurity, thus causing the pipeline to be failed, which directly affects the reliability of long distance pipeline. A. 3-level working model of ＂safety, intermediate, failure＂ is introduced to describe the reliability, fuzzy intermediary int, erim, and unreliability based on Fault Tree Analysis （FTA） on the long distance pipeline. Then two operators of uni on and intersection of stochastic event are applied respectively. Thus, calculation method of reliability vector of long distance pipeline system is formed. The failure dependence parameter in the basic event of pipeline Fault Tree, is analyzed. The calculation analysis indicates that it can describe overall reliability states and is more practical.

关 键 词：长输管线 故障树(FTA) 中介状态 可靠度 失效概率 中介概率 失效相关 

分 类 号：TE97[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]