中国国际收支经常账户中长期变动影响因素研究--基于1992Q1～2007Q3多元时序数据的分析  

A Study on Determinants of Medium-to-Long Term Dynamics of China's Current Account

作　　者：焦武[1] 许少强[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2008年第5期66-72,共7页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：本文参考国外相关论题的重要文献,以经济理论为基础,以储蓄—投资为分析研究问题的视角,同时考虑到中国一些具体的实际情况和数据的可获得性,构建了一个反映中国国际收支经常账户中长期变动影响因素的可用于实证计量的结构模型。结果表明,影响中国国际收支经常账户中长期变动的宏观基本面因素,按重要的程度依次为:滞后的净外国资产头寸、开放度指标、金融深化指标、实际经济增长率、政府预算收支差额各期滞后和贸易条件指数。最后,我们提出了一些相关的政策建议。In this paper, we try to establish a structural model to empirically analyze the determinants of medium-to-long term dynamics of China＇s current account. The model is established by referring to some important papers in this field and based on economic theories, which analyze from perspective of saving-investment. At the same time, our model still considers some practical issues and availability of data in China. The outcomes demonstrate the determinants of CA in terms of importance as follows： lagged NFA, OPEN, M2/GDP, real GDP growth, lagged government budget and TOT. At last, based on our conclusions, we put forth some suggestion.

关 键 词：经常账户 中长期变动 解释变量 结构模型 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]