中国北方荒漠区近50年降水变化特征分析  

Analysis on precipitation change characteristics of desertification in North China during recent 50 years

作　　者：徐利岗[1] 周宏飞[2] 汤英[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2008年第3期23-28,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新项目“北方沙漠化带典型生态系统植物水分关系及植被恢复”

摘　　要：运用水文序列轮次分析理论、极差理论、随机水文理论，对奇台、和田、酒泉、鄂托克旗、银川等站点1955～2002计48年降水资料进行分析，剖析我国北方荒漠区降水的丰枯周期、干旱历时、缺水量的变化特征及其变化规律。结果表明：河西地区及内蒙古高原降水波动平稳，丰枯程度不剧烈，周期也相对稳定；新疆南部降水丰枯波动大，历时长，周期较大。各地平均缺水量占多年平均降水量的16．7％～33．2％，发生干旱的概率可达52％～61％，干旱历时期望值为2～3年。In accordance with run and extremum deviation theory and stochastic hydrological theory, analysis was made of the characteristics of precipitation variation on period and transfer regularity between ample water and low water and amount of locking water etc., making use of the precipitation data of Qitai station, Hetian station, Jiuquan station, Etuokeqi station, Yinchuan station etc for 48 years during 1955～2002. The results showed that the period and fluctuation of precipitation kept relatively stable in Hexi area and Inner Mongolia tableland, while that in south Xinjiang presented an opposite situation. The amount of deficiency in these areas took 16.7 %～33.2 % of the annual precipitation, while the probability of drought was 52 % ～61% and the expected value of drought period is two or three years.

关 键 词：北方荒漠区 降水 轮次及极差分析 随机水文 

分 类 号：S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]