基于CLIMEX和DIVA-GIS的瓜实蝇潜在地理分布预测  

A Predication of potential geographic distribution of melon fruit fly based on CLIMEX and DIVA-GIS

作　　者：孔令斌[1] 林伟[2] 李志红[1] 万方浩[3] 王之岭[4] 黄冠胜[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100094 [2]国家质量监督检验检疫总局,北京100088 [3]中国农业科学院植物保护研究所,北京100094 [4]北京市农林科学院,北京100097 [5]云南出入境检验检疫局,昆明650228

出　　处：《植物保护学报》2008年第2期148-154,共7页Journal of Plant Protection

基　　金：“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2006BAD08A15)

摘　　要：根据瓜实蝇Bactrocera cucurbitae(Coquillett)的生物学数据和已知地理分布信息,采用CLIM-EX软件的地点比较和DIVA-GIS软件的BIOCLIM两种模型研究瓜实蝇的潜在地理分布。结果表明两种模型均能准确预测出我国34.7～18.1°N,97.5～122.6°E范围内的19个省(市、自治区)是瓜实蝇的潜在地理分布区。广东、广西、海南、福建南部、云南南部、台湾西部以及四川盆地为高度适生区,江西、湖南、贵州、重庆、上海以及四川、云南、福建、浙江、江苏、安徽、湖北、陕西、河南、甘肃局部地区为中低度适生区。对全球的潜在分布区预测结果表明:瓜实蝇目前的地理分布还未达到其最大潜在地理分布范围,瓜实蝇随国际贸易进一步扩散的风险较高。对两种模型的进一步分析表明:在物种相关资料完整的情况下,CLIMEX的地点比较模型预测结果的准确性要高于DIVA-GIS的BIOCLIM模型。The paper analyzed the potential geographic distribution of Bactrocera cucurbitae （Coquillett） by CLIMEX＇s compare location and DIVA-GIS＇s BIOCLIM models, based on the information of its biological characteristics and current geographical distribution. The results showed that both of two models can accurately predict the B. cucurbitae could prevail in 34.7 - 18. 1°N, 97.5 - 122.6°E area of 19 districts in China. The high suitable probability areas include Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Sichuan basin, west of Taiwan and south of Yunnan; Fujian. The medium or low suitable probability areas include Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Shanghai , and parts of Sichuan, Yunnan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Shaanxi, Henan, Gansu. The global prescient results showed that the current global geographical distribution of B. cucurbitae is still far from its maximum potential geographical scope,and the risk of farther spreading of melon fruit fly by international trade is high. Further analysis of two models revealed that the prescient results of CLIMEX＇ s compare location model was better then DIVAGIS＇s BIOCLIM model, if the correlate information of the species is sufficient.

关 键 词：瓜实蝇 潜在地理分布 CLIMEX 地点比较模型 DIVA—GIS BIOCLIM 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]