水库溃坝事故时间分布规律与趋势预测  

Time distribution and trend forecast of dam failure

作　　者：何晓燕[1] 王兆印[2] 黄金池[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪减灾研究所,北京100038 [2]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》2008年第1期37-42,共6页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(5040900350221903-3);水利部重大项目:水库溃坝风险与减灾技术研究;科技部十一五科技支撑计划(2006BAC14B00);科研院所社会公益研究专项(2005DIB3J119);水利部公益性行业专项(200701015)

摘　　要：基于我国50年已溃水库数据资料,利用能谱分析方法探讨水库溃坝事故的周期性规律,分析水库溃坝与太阳运动的相关性;对水库溃坝率随水库年龄别变化特征进行研究,提出水库溃坝率年龄别变化趋势。研究表明,水库溃坝事故的发生具有周期性,大周期为25年,小周期为12年左右;太阳活动与水库溃坝具有强相关关系;水库大坝投入运行的前5年是其整个运行过程的"婴儿期",发生水库溃坝的概率较高;大坝溃坝率随着大坝运行年限的变化趋势类似于人口科学中人的年龄别死亡率变化趋势,呈"U"字型。Based on the available dam failure data in China, the method of energy spectrum analysis is applied to analyze the period of dam failure events, and the correlation of solar motion and dam failure is analyzed. The distribution of the rate of failure of dams of different age is also studied, compared with that of human being death rate of different age. It is concluded that the period of dam failure events could be found out, which shows a longer period of about 25 years and a shorter period of about 12 years. A strong correlative relationship could be confirmed between solar motion and dam failure events. The first 5 years of a newly-completed dam can be regarded as its ＂infant stage＂ with a big dam failure possibility. The trend of age-specific dana-failure rate assumes the shape of letter＂U＂, possessing a similarity with thaf of human being death rate.

关 键 词：水库溃坝 周期性 使用年限 溃坝率 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]