基本养老保险制度及其对居民消费的影响研究  

A Research on the Basic Endowment Insurance System(BEIS) and its Influence to the Consumption

作　　者：徐勇[1] 谢琼[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学经济与政法学院,湖北武汉430068 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《乡镇经济》2008年第5期110-115,共6页Rural Economy

基　　金：武汉市社会科学基金资助课题研究成果之一(编号:07006)

摘　　要：文章首先回顾了养老保险制度从"现收现付制"到以社会统筹与个人账户相结合的"部分积累制"的制度变迁过程。然后重点分析了基本养老保险计划对居民消费决策的影响。一是从微观个体的角度分析了在现行"统账"结合养老保险模式下居民的简单消费决策,认为基本养老保险计划对消费的影响可能存在两种效应:预期保障效应和收入效应;二是从总量经济的层面,采用固定效应模型实证研究了自2000年以来,居民参加基本养老保险对消费的整体影响,认为参保对当前消费存在正面影响,且消费对养老保险是富于弹性的。最后给出了研究结论和相关建议。This paper firstly looks back to the institutional change process of the BEIS, from the ＂Charge and pay contemporaneously system＂ to the ＂Parts of backlogs systems＂ that combines together with personal accounts and social security outlay. Then the author makes a point analysis on the basic endowment insurance plan（BEIP）＇s influence to the consumers＇ decisions. First, the author makes a micro analysis on simple consumption decision, facing current BEIS, and he deems there are two kinds of effects： Expectation guarantee effect and income effect. Second, he uses a fixed effects model to research the influence from the total economic amount level empirically since 2000. And he deems the influence is active and elasticity. Finally, he gives the research conclusions and related suggestions.

关 键 词：养老保险 消费 部分积累制 固定效应模型 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]