道路交通安全统计生命价值的条件价值评估  

Application of Contingent Valuation Method in Evaluation of Value of Statistical Life in Road Safety

作　　者：罗俊鹏[1] 何勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通部公路科学研究院

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2008年第6期130-134,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技项目(200431822333-01)

摘　　要：运用条件价值评估法,研究道路交通安全经济中统计生命价值评估问题。采用支付卡、单边界两分式和双边界两分式3种问卷格式在北京地区进行关于避免道路交通事故支付意愿的调查。统计分析结果表明,不同问卷格式得到的结果有较大差异,其中:单边界两分式问卷的平均支付意愿最大,双边界两分式问卷次之,支付卡式问卷最小;同时,双边界两分式问卷比单边界两分式问卷更能模拟市场定价过程。在综合比较3种方法的基础上,认为双边界两分式的评估结果比较合适,即为降低2/10 000的道路交通事故死亡概率的平均支付意愿为102.6元,统计生命价值为51.3万元。The Contingent Valuation Method （CVM） was adopted to study the valuation of value of statistical life （VSL） in road traffic safety economics. By using payment card, single bounded and double bounded dichotomous formats, social survey was implemented in Beijing area to analyze the willingness-to-pay （WTP） of avoiding the road accidents. 1 500 samples in-person interviews had been carried out.The results suggest that there are notable differences between the three questionnaire formats, the single-bounded format have the largest result, the pay-card format have the smallest result and double-bounded format is more suitable to simulate the pricing process than the single-bounded format. It is found that the double-bounded format is closely approximate to the true WTP of respondents. Therefore, the mean WTP for 2/10 000 fatal risk reduction is RMB 102.6, and the VSL is RMB 513, 000.

关 键 词：交通工程 统计生命价值 条件价值评估法 道路交通安全 支付意愿 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]