单体滑坡灾害风险预测  

Discussion on risk prediction for single landslide

作　　者：陈丽霞[1] 殷坤龙[1] 汪洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2008年第2期65-70,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：教育部博士点基金资助项目(20030491004)

摘　　要：以重庆市万州区农机技校滑坡为例,讨论了单体滑坡灾害的风险预测方法。提出采用Monte-Carlo方法预测滑坡发生的概率,利用能量守恒原理和谢德格尔公式推算滑程;结合滑坡裂缝的展布方位,预测出滑坡灾害发生后的影响范围;根据承灾体自身特点和相对于滑坡所处的位置,确定出滑坡灾害影响范围内承灾体的易损性;利用GIS对空间数据的图形叠加功能,将滑坡危险性和灾害易损性叠加,并在考虑库区水位动态变化的基础上,动态预测滑坡灾害导致的经济损失,定量预测滑坡灾害风险大小。结果表明,该滑坡在坝前145m水位和50年一遇暴雨工况下可能的经济损失值最大为10260万元;而在滑坡危险性最大的工况下,滑坡灾害风险不一定最大。所得结果可为滑坡灾害防治工程或土地规划立项提供依据,使政府决策部门在防灾减灾工作中更有针对性。Landslide risk prediction becomes a very important part in the research of landslide hazard now. Although most professionals have spent much time on it for government decision-making, the researches mostly focus on regional risk prediction but not on single landslide. Farm Technique School landslide in Wanzhou District of Chongqing City is discussed as a study ease in this paper, and the method of single landslide risk prediction is explored. It is suggested that the method of Monte-Carlo can be used to predict the failure probability of the single landslide, and the range of influence and sliding distance can be determined by some method discussed in the paper. The vulnerability of the element to be destroyed can be obtained according to the characteristics of the element and the distance relative to landslide. Using the technique of GIS and considering the dynamic changes of water level, the risk is quantitatively predicted . It is concluded that the passible maximum economic loss for the case with 145 m water level and rainstorm occurrng once every 50 years will be 102.6 million RMB and for the scenario with maximum landslide hazard, the disaster risk is not necessarily be maximum. The results give a reference to landslide disaster prevention and control and land planning of government.

关 键 词：滑坡 灾害 风险预测 MONTE-CARLO法 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]