西安市入境旅游市场特征及趋势预测研究  

Research on the Characteristics of Inbound Tourism Market and Prediction of Its Prospects in Xi'an

作　　者：黄芳[1] 黎洁[1] 连传鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,西安710049

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2008年第3期86-91,共6页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：西安市社会科学基金重大项目(6X22)

摘　　要：以西安市为例,运用定量分析方法,从总体特征、时间结构、空间结构、消费结构等方面对2001-2006年入境旅游市场进行分析,得出西安市入境旅游人数和旅游外汇收入在绝对值上保持较快增长,但是和全国总量以及其他旅游城市相比,市场优势地位并不明显,产业地位逐渐下降等结论。根据西安市1978-2006年的入境游客人数和旅游外汇收入数据做回归拟和,预测未来5年,西安市入境游客人数和旅游外汇收入将保持稳定增长,并提出拓展入境旅游市场的相关对策。By using quantitative analysis, the paper studied the overall characteristics, the time structure, the spatial structure and the consumption structure of Xi＇ an inbound tourism market from 2001 to 2006. According to the analysis, several results were figured out, one of which show that the number of inbound tourism and inbound tourism receipts are maintaining to grow rapidly. However, compared with the national total, as well as the other famous tourist cities, it is obvious that the dominant position of inbound tourism market of Xi ＇ an is declining gradually. Meantime, by using regression forecasting model, on the basis of the data of XPan inbound tourism market from 1978 to 2006, the results show that inbound tourists and tourism receipts will maintain to grow stably in the next five years. The paper also proposes measures and suggestions to expand the inbound tourism market of Xi＇ an.

关 键 词：西安市 入境旅游 市场特征 趋势预测 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]