利用MaxEnt预测橡胶南美叶疫病菌在全球的潜在地理分布  

Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Microcyclus ulei in the world using MaxEnt

作　　者：曾辉[1] 黄冠胜 林伟[3] 梁忆冰[3] 李志红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193 [2]云南省出入境检验检疫局,昆明650288 [3]国家质量监督检验检疫总局,北京100088

出　　处：《植物保护》2008年第3期88-92,共5页Plant Protection

基　　金：国家“973”课题(2002CB111405);“十一五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD08A15);国家质量监督检验检疫总局标准法规中心课题

摘　　要：橡胶南美叶疫病菌在美洲地区引起橡胶树严重的落叶病害,是亚太地区国家重要的检疫性有害生物。本文在MaxEnt预测全球范围内气候条件适宜该菌存活区域的基础上,结合寄主分布推测该菌的潜在地理分布。预测结果显示,在54个天然橡胶种植国家或地区中,除了该菌目前分布国家或地区、几内亚比绍和马里,其余33个国家或地区气候适宜值大于10的区域为该菌的潜在地理分布区,加强这些区域的调查监测对保护当地橡胶种植有重要意义。South American leaf blight （SALB）, caused by Microcyclus ulei, is one of the most serious disease of Para rubber in America, and the pathogen is an important quarantine pest of the Asia-pacific region. In this paper, the potential occurrence and establishment areas were predicted by using the MaxEnt based on the climate variables with the distribution of Para rubber. The results showed that the pathogen could establish in the rubber-planting areas, where the suitable climatic value is above 10. Except Guinea-Bissau, Mali and the countries where the pathogen distributed, the other rubber-planting countries are the potential geographic distribution areas of M. ulei. Strengthening surveillance and phytosanitary measures in these regions has vital significance for local rubber plantation.

关 键 词：橡胶南美叶疫病菌 MAXENT 潜在地理分布 适生性分析 

分 类 号：S435.76[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]