新疆石河子地区棉蚜发生程度预测模型研究  

Forecast Model of Occurrence Degree of Cotton Aphis gossypii Glover in Shihhotze Area of Xinjiang

作　　者：张金[1] 王佩玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学农学院植物保护系,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2008年第3期438-441,共4页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：石河子大学自然科学研究与技术创新项目(zkkx2005059);农八师科委石河子重大病虫害监测;预警及防治研究(2005-01);新疆兵团博士基金项目(05JJ01)

摘　　要：根据新疆石河子地区17年（1990-2005及2007年）的历史气象资料，采用逐步判别分析法。分析气候条件与棉蚜发生等级之间的关系。结果表明：6月21-25日最高气温均值、7月1-5日最低气温均值、7月11-15日最低气温均值、7月16-20日最低气温均值以及6月11-20日总降雨量与棉蚜发生程度密切相关。组建了石河子地区棉蚜预测模型，历史符合率达93．3％，将2003、2004年作为独立样本进行试报，结果与实际一致。According to the historical data derived from Shihhotze area in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2005 and 2007,the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence degree of Aphis gossypii Glover were analyzed by means of stepwise discrimination analysis. The result showed that the occurrence degree of Aphis gossypii Glover had close relation to the highest temperature between 21 th to 25 th of June, the lowest temperature between 1 th to 5 th of July,the lowest temperature between 11 th to 15 th of July,the lowest temperature between 16 th to 20 th of July and rain capacity between 11 th to 20 th of July. A forecast model for Aphis gossypii Glover in Shihhotze area was set up, respectively. The percentage of the forecast corresponding to historical data was 93.3 %, which showed no difference with the actuat one in 2003 and 2004

关 键 词：棉蚜 判别分析 预测 气象因子 

分 类 号：S431.16[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]