加权马尔可夫链在河流水质预测中的应用  

Application of Weighted Markov Chain Method in Water Quality Forecast

作　　者：杨国范[1] 刘冰[1] 金鑫[1] 谷建[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学水利学院,辽宁沈阳110161

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2008年第6期16-17,20,共3页Water Saving Irrigation

摘　　要：在河流水质预测方法准确度不高的情况下，介绍了加权马尔可夫链的预测方法，以辽宁省抚顺市内浑河为例，根据1997-2006年的水质资料，采用均值一方差法对年降水量进行了状态分级，应用加权马尔可夫链对生化需氧量进行预测和分析。结果表明：该方法客观、准确、可靠、简便，为水质的中短期预测提供了新的解决途径。Under the situation that the accuracy of river water quality forecast method is not high, the weighted Markov chain forecast method is introduced in this paper. Taking the Hunhe river in Fushun City of Liaoning Province as the example, according to the water quality data of 1997-2006, estate classification of annual rainfall precipitation is conducted by using the average value-variance method and the Biochemical Oxygen Demand is forecasted and analyzed by using the weighted Markov chain method. The result indicates that this method is objective, accurate, reliable and easy. So, it provides a new approach for the middle-short-period forecast of water quality.

关 键 词：加权马尔科夫链 水质 预测 

分 类 号：X8[环境科学与工程—环境工程]