中国水库溃坝空间特征分析  

Analysis on the Spatial Distribution of Dam-Failure in China

作　　者：何晓燕[1] 王兆印[2] 黄金池[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《灾害学》2008年第2期1-4,9,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC14B00);水利部重大项目“水库溃坝风险与减灾技术研究”;国家自然科学基金项目(50409003、50221903-3)

摘　　要：水库溃坝受到多种不确定因素的影响,对已溃水库数据资料进行深入分析和凝练,可提高对水库溃坝事故的规律性认识,为我国水库安全管理工作提供技术支持。依据我国各省级行政区(香港、澳门、台湾未统计)历年已溃水库的数据资料,选用年平均溃坝率作为基本指标分析水库溃坝事故的空间分布特征,采用气候状态图对引发水库年平均溃坝率高的气候特征进行了初步研究。结果表明:沿着400 mm年降水量线以北及其附近区域年平均溃坝率明显高于该降水量线以南地区;在经历了长时间干旱后的大量降水会增加水库安全事故的发生率;与气候湿润、降水充沛的地区相比,降水量偏少,汛期偏旱地区的水库溃坝率并不低;气温的大幅变化是促使水库发生溃坝的重要因素。Dam-failure is influenced by many uncertainty factors. More information about dam-failure law could be acquired through analyzing related data, and the technical foundation could be laid for dam safety management work. This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of dam-failure in China based on the data collected in previous years from 1954 to 2003. The rate of dam-failure per year is selected as a basic index. Climate diagrams are correlated to the rate of dam failure. The results indicate that the high rate of dam failure per year occurs in the area with average annual precipitation less than 400 mm. Heavy rainfall after a long time of drought may increase the rate of dam-failure. The failure rate of the areas with low annual precipitation and flood season is higher than that of the areas with wet climate and high annual precipitation. Large climate change is the main factor of dam failure.

关 键 词：水库溃坝 空间特征 年平均溃坝率 气候状态图 

分 类 号：TV698.23[水利工程—水利水电工程]