基于多元风险概率模型的舰炮武器研制进度风险分析  

Progress Risk Analysis of Naval Gun Development Based on Multiple Risk Probability Models

作　　者：田新广[1] 邱志明[1] 段毅 

机构地区：[1]海军装备研究院博士后工作站,北京100073 [2]北京交通大学计算技术研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《兵工学报》2008年第5期521-525,共5页Acta Armamentarii

基　　金：国家“863”高技术研究发展计划资助项目(863-307-7-5);国防科技基金资助项目(2005JS63.3.1.KG0111)

摘　　要：针对舰炮武器系统研制工程进度的风险分布特征,建立了基于多元风险概率的进度风险分析模型,给出了基于正态分布和指数分布的进度风险估算方法,并结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制进度风险评估的指标和准则,最后给出某型大口径舰炮研制的风险分析实例,验证了文中方法的有效性和可靠性。A model for progress risk analysis based on multiple risk probability was constructed according to the risk distribution characteristics of naval gun system development. A risk evaluation method based on normal and exponential distribution was presented, which is more objective and accurate than traditional methods. The index and criterion for progress risk evaluation were analyzed in terms of practical risk factors. The efficiency and reliability of the method were verified through actual examples.

关 键 词：系统评估与可行性分析 进度风险 舰炮 风险分析 

分 类 号：TJ391[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程] O211[理学—概率论与数理统计]