长江三角洲极端降水趋势及未来情景预估  

Changes of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River delta and its pre-evaluation for future

作　　者：张增信[1,2,3,4] 栾以玲[1] 姜彤[2] 张强[2,4] 曾燕[4,5] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学,江苏省林业生态工程重点实验室,江苏南京210037 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039 [4]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [5]江苏省气象局气象科技开发应用中心,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第3期5-8,共4页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2006-31CCSF2006-32CCSF2007-35)

摘　　要：观测资料显示,1951—2000年长江三角洲年降水和极端降水年际差异较大,但没有呈现显著线性变化趋势。利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式与实测降水数据比较发现,该模型能较好的模拟年降水和极端降水变化。2001—2050年,IPCC 3种不同CO2排放情景下,年降水与极端降水变化并不一致,年降水都出现明显的下降趋势,但极端降水却增加显著,尤其中等排放情景下,2020s年代年降水量锐减,但极端降水迅速增加,说明未来长江三角洲洪涝和干旱发生的几率更高,极端气候造成的危害将更严重。The total amount of highest in precipitations amount in 1 day and 3 days in the Yangtze River delta were analyzed. The research results indicated that there were not significant trend change during 1951-2000. There was a good relationship between ECHAMS/MPI - OM model and observed data about total precipitation and extreme precipitation. Under three different greenhouse gases emission scenarios, total precipitation and extreme precipitation were compared. It was seen that their varieties were very greatly. Total precipitation was dominated by decreasing trend in 2020s, but extreme precipitation was dominated by significant increasing trend in the 2020s, especially under the AIB scenarios. So the future of Yangtze River delta might be more floods and droughts, and the damage caused by extreme precipitation might be more serious.

关 键 词：长江三角洲 极端降水 气候模型 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]