中国能源消费与GDP关系的再检验--基于省际面板数据的实证分析  

Retesting the Granger Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP in China:Based on the Provincial Panel Data Analysis

作　　者：吴巧生[1] 陈亮[2] 张炎涛[2] 成金华[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2008年第6期27-40,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国非再生能源战略评价模型与实证研究”(70573100);中国博士后基金项目“能源约束下的中国重工业化”(20060390829)

摘　　要：本文选取中国各省1986～2005年的数据，运用面板单位根、异质面板协整和基于面板的误差修正模型重新检验中国能源消费和GDP的关系，实证结果表明：从长期来看，中国总体存在能源消费与GDP的双向因果关系，同时从区域来看，东部地区只存在从能源消费到GDP的单向因果关系，而中西部地区则存在从GDP到能源消费的单向因果关系；就短期而言，中国总体及东西部地区的能源消费与GDP无因果关系，而中部地区则存在能源消费和GDP之间的双向因果关系。This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction models to reinvestigate co-movement and the causal relationship between energy consumption and real GDP for 30 provinces during 1986～2005 period. The empirical results show that there is long-run bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real GDP in China, while there is just long-run unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to real GDP in east area, but in center and west area, there is just unidirectional causality running from real GDP to energy consumption in long run. In addition, real GDP and energy consumption lack short-run causality in China, east and west area, but there is short-run bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real GDP in center area.

关 键 词：面板单位根 异质面板协整 GDP 能源消费 因果关系 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]