连续形Fox产量模型在模拟和实际渔业评估中的应用  

Application of a continuous Fox-form production model in fishery stock assessment

作　　者：崔鹤[1] 刘群[1] 王艳君 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003 [2]Fisheries ＆ Oceans Canada, Biology Station, 531 Brandy Cove Road, ST. Andrews, NB E5B2L9, Canada

出　　处：《南方水产》2008年第2期34-42,共9页South China Fisheries Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(30271025)

摘　　要：剩余产量模型因为具有形式简单和所需数据少的特点,在渔业资源评估中被广泛应用。文章应用连续形Fox产量模型对3种模拟渔业以及北大西洋剑鱼渔业进行了评估,并对模拟渔业的评估结果进行了比较,以发现连续Fox产量模型比较适宜的渔业条件。蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)分析表明,模型在产量和捕捞努力量随时间波动的波动性渔业中评估效果最好,可能是由于该类型渔业过程比较完整,数据中包含的信息比较丰富。比较不同的白色噪音水平,当白色噪音小于10%时评估结果偏差较小,小于3.3%;当白色噪音为50%时,评估结果偏差较大,最大偏差为36.7%。Because of their simple form and relatively undemanding of data,surplus production models were widely used in fishery stock assessment.This paper used a continuous Fox-form production model to analyze 3 simulated fisheries and the North Atlantic swordfish fishery.The results of the simulated fisheries were compared to determine what fishery data condition is most suitable for the continuous Fox-form production model.Monte Carlo simulation analysis showed that the model performance for fishery 3 was better than those for the other two simulated fisheries.This may be because the exploitation process of fishery 3 is more complete and fishery 3 data contains more information.When white noise was less than 10%,the percentage biases were small,less than 3.3%.When the white noise was 50%,the percentage biases were large with the largest of 36.7%.

关 键 词：渔业资源评估 Fox产量模型 蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟 

分 类 号：S932[农业科学—渔业资源]